Eritrean troops enter Tigray as Ethiopia-Eritrea ties fray

A vibrant religious ceremony with people in traditional Ethiopian attire, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Photo: Lan Yao/Pexels

Observers have documented Eritrean military units operating within Ethiopia’s Tigray region as of October 7, intensifying concerns about a potential regional escalation amid renewed clashes between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopia’s central government. Multiple witnesses described armored convoys entering Adigrat—a community located 25 kilometers south of the Eritrean border—before advancing from Zalambessa toward central Tigray.

The vehicles reportedly proceeded toward Edaga Hamus, a contested area lying between Adigrat and Mekelle, which has repeatedly shifted hands between TPLF fighters and government forces. Adigrat’s proximity to the border with Eritrea makes this development particularly significant, as it would mark the first confirmed presence of Eritrean troops inside Ethiopia since hostilities resumed on September 23, nearly four years after a fragile ceasefire ended the devastating 2020–2022 Tigray War.

Diplomatic hostilities escalate between Addis Ababa and Asmara

The Ethiopian administration has repeatedly blamed Eritrea for backing the TPLF, its adversary during the previous conflict. Speaking to Fana Television on October 4, government spokesman Abraham Belay warned of retaliation if Eritrean forces crossed into Ethiopian territory. “The Eritrean army has participated with its full capacity and logistics,” he said. “Many Eritrean soldiers have been killed and captured. There is no doubt that the retaliation will be double. They will see what it means to enter the border of another country and fight alongside bandits.”

Eritrea has rejected these allegations outright. In a post on X, Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel accused Ethiopia of creating “a fallacious narrative of ‘self-defense.’” The diplomatic rupture deepened on October 1, when Ethiopia shut its embassy in Asmara and ordered ten Eritrean diplomats to depart within 48 hours, citing “direct and indirect hostility and belligerence.” Eritrea immediately severed all remaining diplomatic ties in response. These tensions have coincided with fresh reports of Eritrean troop movements near the Tigray border, adding to a week of strained relations.

Red Sea dispute exacerbates regional divisions

During his inauguration for a second five-year term on October 5, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reaffirmed Ethiopia’s long-standing claim to Red Sea access. Addressing parliament, he stated, “Based on the principle of give and take, we will work diligently to ensure that Ethiopia has an outlet to the sea.” His remarks followed a summit in New Alamein, Egypt, where leaders from Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia urged a political resolution to Ethiopia’s internal conflict while reaffirming that Red Sea governance rests solely with coastal states. The four nations also opposed any measures affecting Egypt’s and Sudan’s historical rights to Nile water resources. Ethiopia’s landlocked status, imposed when Eritrea achieved de facto independence in 1991, remains a core grievance in bilateral relations.

Military developments on the ground reflect the shifting trends. On October 3, the Tigray Peace Force (TPF), a government-aligned militia, re-entered Mekelle, a city the TPLF had captured in May. Federal troops subsequently moved in and reportedly secured control of the city’s airport. The TPLF acknowledged its withdrawal, stating it had “temporarily moved out of Mekelle” to “operate from somewhere else.” The loss of Mekelle deals a strategic blow to the TPLF, occurring just days after it launched a fresh offensive on September 23 in alliance with the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, a seven-member coalition established on September 20 that includes the Amhara Fano National Movement.

Experts assess risk of broader conflict

Conflict analysts warn the situation could rapidly expand beyond Tigray. Jalale Getachew Birru, senior analyst for East Africa at the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), predicts a high likelihood of Ethiopian forces crossing into Eritrea. “There is a strong likelihood that Ethiopian forces could cross the border to advance toward Asmara and Assab,” he said. The critical uncertainty, he added, is whether Ethiopia’s military can sustain dual operations, crushing insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia while simultaneously engaging Eritrea.