Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed secured a decisive re-election after his Prosperity Party won 438 of the 501 contested seats in this month’s national vote. The National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) announced the results, confirming Abiy’s position ahead of his second term starting in October.
Over 50 million Ethiopians registered to participate, though the election did not cover the entire country. No polling occurred in the northern Tigray region, where officials cited “unfavourable conditions” in the aftermath of the civil war. Voting was also disrupted in parts of Oromia and Amhara due to security issues, leaving millions unable to cast ballots.
Observers from the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) monitored the process but were mostly restricted to Addis Ababa. Critics argue this limited presence weakened the election’s credibility. NEBE chairperson Melatework Hailu maintained the board acted impartially, following legal guidelines without interference.
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Most experts anticipated Abiy’s victory well before voting began. Opposition groups accused the government of detaining rival leaders and restricting campaign activities, claims the Prosperity Party denied. The outcome may do little to ease Ethiopia’s political divisions.
Centralization efforts could deepen instability
The election occurs at a fragile time for the country. Tigray remains unstable in the aftermath of the civil war, which caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and displaced millions. Meanwhile, Amhara has seen rising nationalism, with armed groups resisting federal authority. In Oromia, clashes between government forces and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) continue.
Security concerns threaten economic progress
Abiy’s government highlighted economic achievements during the campaign. In February, the prime minister projected a 10.2% GDP growth rate for 2024, citing IMF-backed reforms, eased foreign exchange rules, and increased investment. However, ongoing security issues could undermine these gains.
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David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia, believes Abiy will prioritize economic changes despite security challenges. “He has managed the economy better than the insurgencies,” Shinn said. Growth should remain strong, and the foreign exchange market will likely stay open.
Shinn also predicted Abiy’s focus on securing access to the Red Sea, particularly through Eritrea’s Assab port. Before the election, Abiy suggested that if current leaders failed to obtain a port “in a reasonable and fair way,” future generations would. “This issue will take center stage,” Shinn said. “Diplomacy, not force, should guide the approach.”
Abiy’s electoral victory may not bring stability. With regional tensions high and economic reforms uncertain, Ethiopia’s future remains unclear.
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